Arab Revolts and the Western role

By: Mustapha Ajbaili

This past Tuesday I attended a lecture by the Swiss Muslim public intellectual Tariq Ramadan on the future of Political Islam in The Arab World. In reflection on the revolutions taking place in the Arab world, Ramadan said that we should neither be naive to think that what is happening is an entirely innocent and domestic cry for freedom, nor be blinded by conspiracy theories that blame the West for all mishaps of the Muslim world.

As he tried to situate himself in the “middle,” Ramadan appeared to fall, possibly unconsciously, into the same pit he was trying to avoid, namely, the extreme. He dedicated most of his speech to the Western influence on the Muslim uprisings, pointing to the participation of Arab youth in U.S.-funded training programs on online public mobilization, blogging and citizen journalism. He also mentioned Google’s role in making available several creative tools people in Egypt could use to get around the shutdown of communications by Hosni Mubarak’s government.

Ramadan added that the Western interference to bring about change in the Middle East is part of a strategic struggle for domination over the Middle East between the West on one side and China and china on the other. He said the West is encouraging uprisings in the Middle East because in part dictators there were moving closer and closer to China and Russia, which, unlike the West, do not ask for democratic reforms as preconditions for economic partnerships

This argument appears rather simplistic, because in varying degrees neither China and Russia, nor the United States, France, and Britain, take democratic reforms much into account when signing economic deals with other nations. In fact, Western countries have notorious track records of cooperating with the most brutal dictators on the planet. In democratic capitalist countries, foreign policy double standards are the norm, with the latest example being Muammar Qaddafi of Libya.

Documents found in the Libyan regime’s intelligence ministry after the fall of Tripoli revealed a meeting between two Qaddafi officials and David Welsh, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state) who brokered the normalization of ties between the Qaddafi regime and the George W. Bush administration. Welsh was reportedly providing public relations services to the Qaddafi regime three weeks before rebels overran Tripoli with the help of NATO.

Other documents exposed security and business cooperation between Western governments and Qaddafi’s regime. All three deposed dictators – Ben Ali of Tunisia, Mubarak of Egypt and Qaddafi – enjoyed in varying degrees comfortable ties with the West before the uprisings that ousted them. If Western powers were interested in changing dictators in the Middle East as Ramadan argues, it would have made sense for them to go after Syria or Iran first rather than allies in Tunisia and Egypt.

The fact the West is backing revolutions in the Arab world does not necessarily mean that they contributed to their rise. It could simply mean being on the right side of history. They did not want to commit the same mistake France did when it stood with Ben Ali of Tunisia. Western powers now watch the revolts, and when the winner becomes clear enough, they jump on his side. Noam Chomsky explains this by saying that the “playbook” of American foreign policy concerning dictators reads thusly: “Whenever a favored dictator is in trouble, try to sustain him, hold on; if at some point it becomes impossible, switch sides.”

What is behind Algeria’s stance on Libya’s National Transitional Council?

By: Mustapha Ajbaili

The nascent political leadership in Libya has found itself in an early, simmering diplomatic row with neighboring Algeria, sparked when the latter refused to recognize the National Transitional Council (NTC), as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people, until it forms a government and pledges to fight al-Qaeda.

The NTC has reacted to Algeria’s position with strongly worded statements from several council members. NTC spokesman Mahmoud Shamman denounced Algeria’s position as an act of aggression.

“We have promised to provide a just trial to all those criminals and therefore we consider this an act of aggression,” Shamman was quoted by the Tripoli Post as saying. “We are warning anybody not to shelter Qaddafi and his sons. We are going after them ... to find them and arrest them.”

Rebel army spokesman Col. Ahmed Bani said Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika “does not even recognize the law of God,” so it is not surprising he does not recognize the NTC.

Algeria said it was afraid that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), whose members had fought the state in the 1990s under the banner of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, might exploit the unrest in Libya to obtain weapons and plan terrorist attacks. The authorities in Algiers even suspect that some al-Qaeda members were fighting alongside the rebels against Col. Qaddafi.

While the Algerian fears are not entirely preposterous, they do not clearly account for the stance against the rebels in Libya.

Algeria’s refusal, or rather hesitation, to recognize the NTC is likely better understood in the light of the changing political dynamics and shift of alliances in North Africa with the fall of Qaddafi.

Qaddafi has long been allied with Algeria in funding, arming and providing political support for the Polisario Front, which is seeking the separation of Western Sahara from Morocco. Qaddafi and the Algerian government had lobbied successfully to bring the separatist movement into the African Union, prompting Morocco to withdraw.

Now, since the crisis in Libya began, Morocco has supported the rebels, albeit not too overtly. Rabat has participated in all Libya Contact Group meetings and supported an Arab League call for imposing the No-Fly Zone over Libya. A day after Tripoli was overrun by rebel forces, Morocco dispatched its foreign minister to Benghazi and recognized the NTC as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people.

The NTC expressed appreciation for the swift move on the part of Morocco and promised to support Morocco’s stance on the Western Sahara issue and cease cooperation with the Polisario Front.

So with Qaddafi out of power, Algeria finds itself isolated. It will now have to bear most of the burden in dealing with the Polisario Front. Besides, with the winds of freedom blowing in North Africa – Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco are all in the midst of rapid change – Algeria remains a quasi-socialist, reclusive dictatorial military regime that is unlikely to integrate with its neighbors in building common regional economic and political policies.

Mustapha Ajbaili: To whom this may concern: Social problems as contagious as epidemics

MUSTAPHA AJBAILI

In today’s fast-moving news cycles we accept—not expect—that things will change at any moment and will do so in a dramatic fashion. And we accept that change is looming, often not by design but due to the intrinsic volatility of our social, economic and political system/systems.

The unrest that has swept the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows that the traditional forces of domination, often entrenched through opaque internal politics, are in fact vulnerable to measly social earthquakes.
The unrest shows also that we now live in a world where no one is in charge. Revolutions, wars, economic crises are no longer but predictable, they are also part of our reality. The very recent developments in the telecommunication industry, primarily the Internet, have turned social and economic phenomena into epidemics. They have become like measles, little of which can spread like wildfire. They are contagious and their change can be dramatic, not gradual.

It took 13 years of sanctions, total embargo, and devastating wars to topple Saddam Hussein. It took two months for the popular anger to oust two dictators in the Middle East and drive three others to the verge of collapse, the point of no return, the tipping point of dramatic change.

Today, any popular demonstration—no matter how small it is—and any individual wrath is contagious and can consume our social jungle and shatter its laws. The lessons are for whom this may concern.

(Published in English.alarabiya.net June 29, 2011)