Mubarak should be told: “C’est La Revolution, Sire!”

Mustapha Ajbaili

 
Stubborn Egyptian President Housni Mubarak needs someone in his circle to tell him what the Duke of La Rochefoucauld-Liancourt told the French King Louise XVI. When crowds stormed Bastille in July 1789, the surprised king told the Duke, “That is a revolt!,” the Duke replied, “no Sire,” “C’est la revolution.”


The possibilities, however, that someone in Mubarak’s powerful military, business and political circles will tell him that the people want him gone is difficult to predict. The case of Tunisia, where army chief Rachid Ammar told ousted Ben Ali that the time was up for him to quit, is unlikely to happen in Egypt.

Unlike Tunisia, the military in Egypt is part of the corrupt regime, but what is more saddening is the undeniable fact that the military is a respected institution among the Egyptian public. The old guards in the Egyptian army are basking in what they see as historical achievements in their 1973 war against Israel, which led to the “liberation” of Sinai. (The word Liberation between quotes because until now Egyptian army is still banned under the peace accord with Israel from deployment in some parts of Sainai).


During the ongoing popular upraising in Egypt, army generals are keeping the public at an arm’s length to tell them that they love them, but not to get too close to upset some allies at home and around the world.


Besides, army generals have a vested personal interest in the status quo in partnership, of course, with the business class, which Gamal Mubarak, a banker, brought to positions of political decision making through membership in the ruling National Democratic Party.


As the marriage of politics and business was formalized, the economic growth went above 6% but the benefits of such growth did not trickle down to the poor working class and about 40% of the population continued to live under two dollars a day. The economic growth in the last few years widened the rift between the rich and the poor making the eruption of a revolt simply a matter of time.


Now that it has erupted, what would it achieve? Certainly the rich and politically powerful upper class is all behind Mubarak, not only because he protects their interests, but more because he is their symbol drawing all the popular anger and attention away from them.

If Mubarak falls, the popular anger and attention will likely be re-oriented and directed towards them, and many of them would likely be brought to justice and driven out from positions of power in the government, in business, and in the media. It would be a reshuffling of the whole society not just of the regime. That is why Mubarak is stubborn and unwilling to surrender to the will of the people.


Despite all this, things can never be the way they were before January 25.The Egyptian revolution may not change everything overnight, but it has certainly fractured the old regime. Whether Mubarak’s succeeds to keep his post or not, he will never be the same Mubarak he was before January 25. The change is happening already and will continue, even slowly, and the powerful corrupt business, political and military elites will be divorced. The people have broken the fear barrier and they will continue to protest fearlessly for their rights.

The major fear is that if the regime becomes excessively irresponsive to the demands of the people, as expressed in the ongoing peaceful protests, we may see a shift toward the use of violence by protesters. We should keep in mind that thousands of arms were stolen from the central security buildings that were attacked by protesters on Friday of Rage and it is just a matter of time before they get to the hands of terrorists if security is not restored as soon as possible with the departure of Mubarak.

It is high time America told Mubarak “C’est la Revolution, Sire” if no one in his circle is willing to tell him so.